By Cynthia Grabo, Jan Goldman
Guide of caution Intelligence: Assessing the risk to nationwide safeguard was once written throughout the chilly warfare and labeled for forty years, this guide is now on hand to students and practitioners drawn to either heritage and intelligence. Cynthia Grabo, writer of the abridged model, waiting for shock: research for Strategic caution, is going into element at the basics of intelligence research and forecasting. The booklet discusses the issues of army research, difficulties of figuring out particular difficulties of political, civil and fiscal research and assessing what it capacity for analysts to have _warning judgment._
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Extra resources for Handbook of Warning Intelligence: Assessing the Threat to National Security (Scarecrow Professional Intelligence Education)
Attaches often have been surprised, not to say chagrined, that their first-hand observations did not receive more credence back home, and that low-level reports which they considered demonstrably false had attracted so much attention. Warning and Collection 35 One cardinal principle which both the collector and the analyst may do well to keep in mind is that good sources and good data reinforce one another. Provided reasonable access is available (and this is an important proviso), it will nearly always be found that a significant development, and particularly any major military preparations or movements, will be reported by more than one source and that they will be in essential if not detailed agreement.
It is likely that there will be some degree of uncertainty concerning the plans or intentions of the enemy even when a great amount of information is available and the collection effort has functioned extremely well. Where the amount of information is scanty, where the validity or interpretation of important data may be in question, or where there are significant delays in the receipt of material, the uncertainty normally will be considerably increased—or at worst, there may be insufficient factual data even to raise serious questions whether some aggressive action may be planned.
It has been observed that a great deal of the effort of the intelligence community in recent years is essentially inhouse and consists in exchanging information with or preparing briefings for other intelligence personnel rather than higher officials. Not so in the event of an impending crisis which may involve the security interests of the country or our allies or which could entail a commitment of US forces. It is essential that the possibility of such a development be clearly, and often repeatedly, brought to the attention of the policy official as the situation develops and that he be left in no doubt as to the potential gravity of the situation or what it might entail for national policy.