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By Kurt M. Campbell, Robert J. Einhorn, Mitchell B. Reiss, Vartan Gregorian
Greater than part a century after the arrival of the nuclear age, is the realm impending a tipping aspect that would unharness a scourge of nuclear proliferation? this day some of the development blocks of a nuclear arsenal—scientific and engineering services, precision laptop instruments, software program, layout information—are extra available than ever earlier than. The nuclear pretensions of so-called rogue states and terrorist businesses are a lot mentioned. yet how enterprise is the get to the bottom of of these international locations that traditionally have selected to forswear nuclear guns? a mix of alterations within the foreign atmosphere may possibly trigger a domino influence, with international locations scrambling to increase nuclear guns in order to not be left behind—or to advance nuclear "hedge" capacities that may let them construct nuclear arsenals quite speedy, if useful. The Nuclear Tipping element examines the standards, either household and transnational, that form nuclear coverage. The authors, exclusive students and overseas coverage practitioners with broad executive event, strengthen a framework for figuring out why sure international locations may possibly initially have determined to give up nuclear weapons—and pinpoint a few newer country-specific elements that may provide them reason to think again. Case experiences of 8 long term stalwarts of the nonproliferation regime—Egypt, Germany, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Syria, Turkey, and Taiwan—flesh out this framework and exhibit how even those international locations may be driven over the sting of a nuclear tipping aspect. The authors supply prescriptions that might either hinder such nations from reconsidering their nuclear alternative and stay away from proliferation via others. The stakes are huge, immense and luck is way from guaranteed. to maintain the tipping aspect past succeed in, the authors argue, the overseas group must act with cohesion, mind's eye, and power, and Washington's management can be crucial. individuals comprise Leon Feurth, George Washington collage; Ellen Laipson, Stimson middle; Thomas W. Lippman, center East Institute; Jenifer Mackby, heart for Strategic and overseas experiences; Derek J. Mitchell, middle for Strategic and foreign experiences; Jonathan D. Pollack, U.S. Naval struggle collage; Walter B. Slocombe, Caplin and Drysdale; and Tsuyoshi Sunohara, middle for Strategic and overseas reviews.
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Extra info for The Nuclear Tipping Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices
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Overseas military presence, and its possible effects, see Kurt M. ” Foreign Affairs, vol. 82, no. 5 (SeptemberOctober 2003), p. 95. 9. These problems are discussed in Seung-Hwan Kim, “Anti-Americanism in Korea,” Washington Quarterly, vol. 26, no. 1 (Winter 2002–03), pp. 109–22. 10. S. and South Korea Try to Redefine their Alliance,” New York Times, December 26, 2003, p. A8. 11. George Perkovich, “Bush’s Nuclear Revolution: A Regime Change in Nonproliferation,” Foreign Affairs, vol. 82, no. 2 (March/April 2003), pp.
In theory, these and other possible factors could apply to a wide range of countries in different regions of the world. But nuclear proliferation does not occur in theory. It occurs in individual countries, in specific international and domestic circumstances, and with particular persons and organizations making discrete decisions. ” Factors assumed in the abstract to be influential in future nuclear choices may turn out to have little or no 32 03 1330-4 chap3 5/20/04 1:08 PM Page 33 WILL THE ABSTAINERS RECONSIDER?
S. Senate confirmation hearing, February 2, 1993. As reported in Douglas Jehl, “CIA Nominee Wary of Budget Cuts,” New York Times, February 3, 1993, p. A18. 5. Office of the Secretary of Defense, Proliferation: Threat and Response, January 2001, p. pdf (March 2004). 6. Many studies have examined countries’ motivations for acquiring nuclear weapons. For an excellent recent discussion, see Scott D. Sagan, “Rethinking the Causes of Nuclear Proliferation: Three Models in Search of a Bomb,” in Victor A.