By Ronald D. Lee

International inhabitants getting older is an inevitable characteristic of the ultimate levels of the demographic transition, a world mix of low fertility and coffee mortality that lead to older, extra slowly growing--even shrinking--populations. This pattern increases the concurrent hazards of emerging dependency ratios of the aged at the working-age inhabitants, and falling worldwide saving charges because the turning out to be retired inhabitants starts to not shop after a life of operating. This lecture explains how the purported hazards of worldwide getting older will be contained via foresight and prudent public coverage, and likewise how those traits will have an effect on the 3rd international international locations.

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For this reason, 22 GLOBAL POPULATION AGING FIGURE 9 COST OF GOVERNMENT BENEFITS PER INDIVIDUAL AT EACH AGE, BY PROGRAM Amount in 2000 dollars $25,000 $20,000 Medicare $15,000 Social Security $10,000 $5,000 Medicaid Education Other 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Age SOURCE: Based on Lee and Edwards (2002). State, local, and federal combined, for United States in 2000. 0, primarily reflecting the surplus in the Social Security accounts. Large federal deficits occurred following 2000, but that does not really bear on the support ratio, which abstracts from all such variations to concentrate on the effect of demographic change alone.

Gregory, and H. A. Hunt, 375–97, 410–15. : Upjohn. 41 42 GLOBAL POPULATION AGING Chawla, Amonthep,. 2005. National Transfer Account Project. www. com/proj/nta (accessed March 6, 2007). ———. 2006. ” Mimeo, National Transfer Accounts Project. com/proj/nta (accessed March 6, 2007). Coale, Ansley, and Paul Demeny. 1983. Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations. New York: Academic Press. Cutler, D. , J. M. Poterba, L. Sheiner, and L. Summers. 1990. ” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1:1–56.

Second, these familial systems also hold implicit debt that would have to be repaid in a transition to a funded system of private-asset accumulation to fund old-age consumption. In such a transition, some generations would have to support their own elderly parents, thus repaying implicit debt while at the same time saving for their own retirement, thus freeing their own children of the obligation of supporting them in RONALD D. LEE 37 old age. This is the same double burden that would be involved in moving from an unfunded to a funded public pension system.

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