By Milan Nikolić (auth.)

This e-book explores the disastrous financial results of pseudo lending for pseudo reforms that happened whilst the IMF, as a consultant of the West, pretended to assist the transition financial system of post-communist Russia via stabilization whereas the Russian executive promised reforms.

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Extra resources for Monetary Policy in Transition: Inflation Nexus Money Supply in Postcommunist Russia

Example text

TPi. 8) Strong form efficiency or orthogonality implies that economic agents make use of all available information in forming expectations about the inflation rate. This hypothesis can be tested by looking for lack of correlation between forecast errors (tPi. 9) where Z;-i is a vector of information variables dated i-I or earlier (extended broad money supply, m2x, in our case),26 8 is a vector of coefficients and the null hypothesis (consistent with rationality) Ho: 8 = 0, i = 1 is tested. Each of the tests described above tests for violation of rationality in a particular direction.

The former was a consequence of the rigid price and wage 28 Monetary Policy in Transition determination system inherited from the previous economic regime and the latter a consequence of the considerable depreciation of the ruble, which itself was largely due to the consistently high money supply. 7 In any stabilization attempt the former is best broken by freezing wages and the latter by anchoring expectations to an effective intermediate target. Since in the absence of a well-developed financial market, economic agents' best available proxy for a current inflation rate, except inflation history, is a prevailing level of market exchange rate, the latter seems to be an obvious target.

3 by means of the maximum likelihood method. 7. 7 does not reveal any deficiency of the ARCH(l) model of inflation in Russia for the given period. The fit of the model is reasonably good and there is no sign of 36 Monetary Policy in Transition autocorrelation in the residuals. Although the only significant lag in the autoregression appears to be lag 1, the Wald test rejects the null hypothesis that the coefficients of the rest of the lags are jointly zero. 7 are stable across the various subsamples of data.

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