By Michael Krepon

The essys during this assortment discover and study tips to decrease the danger of nuclear battle in South Asia. individuals paintings to introduce the speculation and technique of nuclear probability aid, to supply particular measures that will paintings most sensible within the quarter, and to contemplate the results of missile protection techniques for balance in Asia. a lot paintings is required to recduce nuclear risks among India and Pakistan. whereas the truth that either nations own nuclear guns might hinder a full-blown traditional or nuclear conflict, the presence of those guns within the zone can also inspire using violence at reduce degrees watching for escalation to be contained by way of a mutual wish to keep away from the nuclear threshold. One purely must examine the Kashmir clash for affirmation of this paradox, with severe crises coming extra usually with extra severity because the nuclear checks of 1998. Sustained efforts alongside the road instructed by way of the participants of this quantity are a vital step towards lowering nuclear danger at the Subcontinent.

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Should that happen, China might augment its nuclear forces to counter the American missile shield and assure itself of a second-strike capability. This could have a catalytic effect on India, which might feel compelled to weaponize and deploy its nuclear weapons, forcing Pakistan to do the same. Risk reduction and confidence building would then become imperative. Existing confidence-building measures would need consolidation to avoid conventional conflict, since both nonnuclear and nuclear conflict lie along a continuum.

24 The authenticity of this account can be questioned, but the absence of any official disclaimer leads to ambiguity that could be intentional but is hardly reassuring. S. intelligence had developed “disturbing evidence that the Pakistanis were preparing their nuclear arsenals for possible deployment” during the Kargil crisis. 25 Again, there was no official disclaimer from Pakistan, no doubt designed to heighten ambiguities and strengthen the credibility of its deterrent, which is also discomforting.

All three devices were detonated simultaneously. . [O]n May 13, 1998 two more sub-Kilotonne tests were carried out. These devices were also detonated simultaneously. ”28 This The Security–Insecurity Paradox 27 opaque language raises two questions about the need for more tests to weaponize and deploy its nuclear arsenal. First, was a thermonuclear capability truly demonstrated, or was a boosted fission device exploded? 29 Since the radiochemical analysis of the fission–fusion products from the test site has not been disclosed this matter remains unresolved.

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