By Mark A. Harwell (auth.)
In 1982, 3 conservationists within the usa mentioned a starting to be challenge they shared concerning the long term organic effects of nuclear conflict; they puzzled what any such warfare might do to the air, the water, the soils 1 the traditional structures upon which all lifestyles relies. i used to be a kind of 3; the others have been executives of 2 philanthropic foundations, Robert L. Allen of the Henry P. Kendall origin and the past due Robert W. Scrivner of the Rockefeller kin Fund. jointly we started attempting to! discover what the medical group was once doing in regards to the challenge and what steps should be taken to alert the environmental flow to the necessity to handle the topic. We knew large-scale nuclear warfare may possibly kill from three hundred million to 1000000000 humans outright and that one other billion may well endure severe accidents requiring quick scientific recognition, care that may be principally unavailable. yet what sort of global wouldisurvivors face? may the long term effects turn out to humanity and survival of all species than the to be much more critical instant results? We stumbled on that relatively little medical study were performed concerning the envifonmental outcomes of a nuclear conflict of the magni tude that toda,y's large arsenal may unharness . .
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Extra info for Nuclear Winter: The Human and Environmental Consequences of Nuclear War
Thermal Radiation and Fires In addition to the direct effects of thermal radiation on humans, indirect effects from thermal radiation- (in combination with blast-) induced fires are very important; in fact, the firestorms created in the Nagasaki and particularly Hiroshima bombings caused a large fraction of the casualties (Bond, 1946; Ishikawa and Swain, 1981). As in direct effect considerations, the extent and effect of fire following a nuclear detonation are functions of the warhead yield and local 39 INITIAL CONDITIONS atmospheric conditions; larger warheads require greater exposures to cause the same degree of fire initiation.
Surface burst No overlap Random overlapb 2088 4406 1361 2541 1596 6395 6542 2978 2779 1601 1230 2785 860 1606 1009 4042 4135 1883 1757 1012 1171 2472 764 1426 895 3588 3670 1671 1559 898 aIn this table and related tables, more digits are reported than are significant digits. This is so that calculations could be independently confirmed; it is not to imply a particular level of precision. bArea with overlap'calculated from Eq. 15. 26 NUCLEAR WINTER where y = population per unit area as a function of distance x a = central density (individuals per unit area) b = coefficient of decay.
L----' 1 2 5 10 20 I I 50 100 200 500 I I 2 5 I I 10 20 I 50 100 ~-----~~-----~"~----~v~----~ MT kT Weapon Yield Figure 3. Radiant energy levels necessary for ignition from thermal radiation of nuclear detonations. (From Broido, 1963) 40 NUCLEAR WINTER Table 12. A. 63 Weapon yield (kT) Q B. 7 aCaiculations and data following Glastone and Dolan (1977). bDifferences in blast wave arrival times for air vs. surface bursts reflect slant ranges vs. ground ranges. exceeded at the 2 psi isopleth for the weapon yields in the scenario being examined here.