Download Turmoil in Latin America and the Caribbean: Volatility, by Guillermo E. Perry, Norbert Fiess PDF
By Guillermo E. Perry, Norbert Fiess
Given that June 2002, there was a rise within the point and volatility of spreads in addition to pressures within the foreign-exchange markets throughout Latin the United States and Caribbean (LAC) area. those were followed via political alterations and bigger political uncertainty in a few international locations. international locations comparable to Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia were dealing with losses of deposits and reserves of various levels of depth. This file analyzes capability contagion and spillover results of the Argentine concern from different assets of industry volatility. The file additionally examines the influence of the quandary on international direct funding flows as a hallmark of probably long-lasting destructive results on capital flows to the LAC area. eventually, the paper assesses the impression of the Argentina concern on person nations by way of alternate and/or monetary hyperlinks.
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Additional resources for Turmoil in Latin America and the Caribbean: Volatility, Spillovers, and Contagion (World Bank Working Papers)
Sample text
Trade with Argentina accounts for about 9 percent of Mexico’s total trade with Latin America, whereas trade with Brazil represents a much larger and more rapidly growing segment of about 35 percent. Overall, trade relations seem too weak to induce significant spillover from a financial or economic crisis in the rest of the region or parts thereof. Exchange Rate The Mexican peso is diverging from the troubled path being followed by other Latin American currencies, notably the Argentine peso and Brazilian real.
S. recovery. The recently increased volatility and deterioration in some Mexican financial mar17. These calculations should be interpreted in relation to a scenario with neutral external conditions, different from the current adverse external environment (for which the Argentine crisis is partly to blame). 18. These projections are based on average oil price for the Venezuelan oil export basket of about US$19 per barrel in 2002. T URMOIL IN L ATIN A MERICA AND THE C ARIBBEAN 27 ket indicators—exchange rate, interest rate, and sovereign risk spreads—can be attributed to concerns about that recovery.
Ecuador could be affected by the level of FDI that it receives. An Argentine company is heading the consortium building the oil pipeline. While its finances are sound for now, Argentine investment in oil fields to use the new oil pipeline have been less forthcoming. Non-oil FDI declined by 54 percent from January to May year on year. Colombia To date, Colombia has not been one of the countries most affected by the Argentine crisis. Despite a generally more restricted access to international financial markets, Colombian spreads have remained quite stable over the past 18 months.