By Michael V. Dr Frank

The technological age has visible various catastrophic and preventable mess ups, frequently because of judgements that didn't thoroughly reflect on protection as an element in layout and engineering. via greater than a dozen useful examples from the author�s adventure in nuclear strength, aerospace, and different possibly dangerous amenities, determining protection is the 1st e-book to compile probabilistic hazard review and selection research utilizing actual case stories. For managers, venture leaders, engineers, scientists, and scholars, Michael V. Frank makes a speciality of tools for making logical judgements approximately advanced engineered structures and items during which safeguard is a key think about layout - and the place failure may cause nice damage, harm, or dying.

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Additional info for Choosing Safety: "A Guide to Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis in Complex, High-Consequence Systems"

Example text

As illustrated in Figure 3-4, an ESD is a series of boxes with attached lines. The boxes depict events that have binary outcomes (success/yes or failure/no). An ESD is a type of decision tree that is limited to binary outcomes and may have chance nodes and logic nodes. Chance nodes are characterized by a conditional probability; in other words, the probability of taking either path at a node is provided. Such probabilities can be developed, for example, using experiential data, probabilistic engineering calculations, or expert judgment.

There is no uncertainty, and the probability of that particular accident having already occurred is 1. ” Probability estimation within the context of a PRA would be useful in answering this question. The numerical estimation of a probability, therefore, depends on the questions being asked and the timing of these questions. 2 Uncertainty and Probability Probabilities are a mathematical measure of uncertainty. By convention, probabilities range from zero (no chance of happening) to one (certain to happen).

Quantification of Initiating Event Fault Tree for 10-Year Probability of Fire Below Tank Note: Q = probability or unavailability. FUIPET t  The consultants developed the PRA model from the top down, but they quantified it from the bottom up. As Figure 3-12 shows, probabilities are associated with basic events and undeveloped events. Here, the consultants combined the event probabilities using probabilistic addition under OR gates and probabilistic multiplication under AND gates. The quantification reflected the consultants’ finding of a high likelihood of an ignition source being present somewhere within a few hundred yards of the tank farm and a flammable mixture eventually occurring.

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