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By Frank Camm, Lauren Caston, Alexander C. Hou, Forrest E. Morgan, Alan J. Vick
Provides a risk-management approach could support senior Air strength leaders to (1) concentration making plans at the so much salient threats, (2) achieve larger readability at the hazards linked to substitute classes of motion throughout a number of futures, (3) continue a feeling of the power uncertainties linked to any coverage selection, and (4) successfully converse their judgments approximately chance to key audiences.
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Managing Risk in USAF Planning
Provides a risk-management approach might aid senior Air strength leaders to (1) concentration making plans at the such a lot salient threats, (2) achieve larger readability at the dangers linked to replacement classes of motion throughout a number of futures, (3) hold a feeling of the power uncertainties linked to any coverage selection, and (4) successfully converse their judgments approximately chance to key audiences.
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Extra resources for Managing Risk in USAF Planning
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Galway, Bernard Fox, John C. Graser, Jerry M. : RAND Corporation, MG-415-AF, 2006. An Analytic Framework and Risk Scorecard to Support Strategic Force Planning 17 by asking how it would affect the probabilities in the end-to-end map and, ultimately, how it would affect the probability of successful execution of the CONOPS. As implementation proceeded, the Air Force mobilized subjectmatter experts to address the hundreds of elements in the end-toend map associated with each CONOPS. The Air Force developed detailed scenarios to describe the environment in which it expected each CONOPS to occur.
The remainder of this section presents 20 Managing Risk in USAF Force Planning an analytic process, defined as a series of eight steps, that the Air Force could use to build and then apply such a scorecard. 4 depicts the process graphically, using numbers next to boxes to enumerate the eight steps of the process. S. national interests. Chapter Three discusses how to define a practical taxonomy of generic threats. S. S. 5 Define set of Threats relevant to each Future Assess capacity required to service each Future 7 6 An Analytic Framework and Risk Scorecard to Support Strategic Force Planning • • • • 21 insurgency traditional conventional conflict high-technology conventional conflict state nuclear threat or use.
In all likelihood, wise leaders will not delegate their responsibility to choose to a set of specialists who can apply these tools; by definition, formal methods simplify, abstracting from reality to make any problem tractable. Such simplification can help leaders see through potentially distracting detail not relevant to the key issues at hand. Simplification can also remove issues relevant to the decision, especially when subjective judgments are hard to reflect in risk analysis. So wise leaders will not rely solely on aggregative riskassessment tools to determine their decisions.